AFL Round 21 Preview- Bulldogs v Giants
As we draw closer to the pointy end of the season, it seems like every clash becomes season defining- and it will be the home side on Friday night with it all on the line. While the Giants (2nd, 52 points, 115%) are virtually assured of a top four berth, the Bulldogs (7th, 44 points, 101%) are stuck in the logjam of the middle of the ladder, with a poor percentage to boot. Having won four on the trot, however, and returning to their favoured deck, the Bulldogs are in a much better position to challenge the young upstarts of the Giants.
For the Giants, missing mercurial ruck, Shane Mumford, would've previously been a death sentence- but no longer. Former Geelong big man, Dawson Simpson, is finally fit and like a new recruit in 2017 following his 44 hit-out, five tackle performance that helped the Giants to a 45-32 clearance dominance against Fremantle two weeks ago. This is certainly the area GWS will be looking to exploit against a Dogs midfield that has failed to up the frenetic and tenacious reputation it developed last year.
With games against the Power in Ballarat and a Hawks side determined to farewell loved veterans at the ‘G coming up, this match gives them possibly the best chance to climb ahead of the pack and realise their finals ambitions.
Predicted weather: Roof-induced perfection.
Last time they met:
Round 6, 2017, Manuka Oval. GWS 11.9-75 defeated Western Bulldogs 9.19-73
GWS- Cameron 4; Patton, Greene 3. Bulldogs- Stringer, Bontempelli 3.
Nine goals in 28 scoring shots (32% conversion) from the Bulldogs told the story of the game as GWS held on to win the game by 2 points thanks to a 55% conversion rate. Despite being +13 on the Inside 50 count, the Dogs continually butchered their chances, the lead constantly see-sawing in the game given the Dogs couldn’t convert their dominance to the scoreboard. It was Shiel who almost single-handedly turned the game in the final quarter, with 11 disposals (five contested) and three clearances. He finished with 29 touches and six clearances for the game, with captain Callan Ward (27d., 5 cl.) also influential around the stoppages. Speaking of, Shane Mumford was huge in that area, thumping 62 hit-outs against Tom Boyd (25) and laying a crunching game-ending tackle on Tom Liberatore. In defence, Heath Shaw and Zac Williams combined for 49 disposals, 14 rebounds and five inside 50’s, ensuring the flood of Bulldogs forward entries went to waste.
For the Bulldogs it was the dependable combination of Luke Dalhaus (27d., 4 tackles, 3 inside 50’s) and Bontempelli (3 goals, 22d., 7 tack.) who relentless pushed their size forward all day.
Form
Western Bulldogs: L (-59), W (+20), W (+54), W (+30), W (+14).
GWS: Draw, L (-13), L (-19), W (+12), W (+35).
Team news
Bulldogs: IN- Dickson, Stringer, Dunkley. OUT- Wood (hamstring); Webb, Smith (omitted).
GWS: IN- Patton, Greene. OUT- Smith (knee), Mumford (suspension).
Stats that matter
- The Giants have a huge advantage (even with Mumford missing) in the clearance stakes; ranked first in the league with 43 per game. The Bulldogs are 14th with an average of 35.
- Toby Greene has missed six matches this year, primarily due to his well publicized brain snaps, but when he is on the park he has managed 33 goals, 22 behinds and averaged 93 AFL Fantasy points.
- Goal kicking accuracy, which burned the Dogs last time they played the Giants, continues to be a major problem. They are ranked last in the competition, kicking at only 43%, with Bontempelli (35%, 20.26), Jake Stringer (40%, 24.24) and Mat Suckling (32%, 8.14) the worst culprits.
- The ‘Bont’ has roared back into form over the past month, spending significantly more time up forward when not playing in the centre square. His past four games have seen him kick six goals, eight behinds and average 24d. (12.5 contested), six marks, six cl. and four inside 50’s.
Odds
Head to Head: Western Bulldogs $2.20 (B365), GWS 1.75 (Luxbet) ($2.20 Promo, Ladbrokes).
Line: Western Bulldogs +4.5 $1.93 (B365), GWS -6.5 $1.95 (Unibet).
Total Points Over/Under: +/- 175.5, $1.87 (William Hill).
Margin: Western Bulldogs 1-39, $2.80 (Crownbet), 40+ $9 (Crownbet). GWS 1-39, $2.37 (Sportsbet), 40+ $6 (B365).
Verdict
WIN- GWS $2.20 Ladbrokes (max. $50)
Total Points OVER 175.5 $1.87 (William Hill)
Half/Full Double- BULLDOGS/GIANTS $6.75 (Ladbrokes)
EXOTICS
First goal- Jonathan Patton. $9.50 (Ladbrokes, boosted). Combined with the expected clearance dominance of the star studded Giants midfield and the fact the Dogs have struggled to contain opposition key forwards this year, the big fella looks a good bet. With Daniher and Sam Reid both booting six goals against a depleted Dogs defence this season and the absence of skipper and intercept king, Easton Wood, you get the feeling Patton will relish being the go-to man.
Smaller plays: Dylan Shiel $34 (Crownbet), Liam Picken $18 (Sportsbet).
30 possessions/3 goals: Shiel/Greene. $4.20 (Sportsbet). Shiel, the man with the hamstrings made of steel (click here) is a stoppage machine who is more than capable of breaking lines and the typical prototype in the modern game. He averages 28 disposals this season and it isn't hard to see him racking up contested numbers against the Dogs. Greene was impressive last time these two teams met and you'd hope he'd be feeling guilty enough to put it at least a three goal performance. At least.
Most Disposals, Group B: Stephen Coniglio $2.25 (Ladbrokes). A smooth operator and almost the most crucial cog in the Giants midfield, Coniglio has returned from a serious ankle injury in impressive style, racking up 27 and 28 disposals respectively in his two matches back. He is a steal in this category.
