AFL Round 21 Preview- Cats v Tigers
Hard to believe Geelong are heavy underdogs at home, isn't it! The Tigers haven't beaten the Cats in Geelong for over 20 years, but most bookies are in agreeance that will end this Saturday. This year at Simonds Stadium however, in the five games the Cats have played, the combined margin is only +3 for four wins and one loss- certainly demonstrating teams are coming with a better and more successful game plan.
The inclusion of Jack Reiwoldt is massive for the Cats, although that is certainly not to say they struggled without him for the past two weeks after his bizarre eye injury. Youngsters like Castagna, Rioli and Caddy have started to really hit their straps and their speed will trouble the, at times, leaky Cats defence.
Predicted weather: Showers with moderate winds, 16 degrees.
Last time they met: Round 21, 2016, MCG.
Richmond 12.6-78 defeated by Geelong 10.22-82.
Major goalkickers: Richmond- Lloyd 3, Rioli 2. Geelong- Motlop 4; Hawkins, Duncan 2.
The Tigers led for much of the game, with their lead peaking at 36 before the Cats stormed home. Despite only kicking four goals across the first three quarters, the Cats booted 6.9 in the final quarter (and held the Tigers to a solitary major) to scrape across the line.
Throughout the match the Cats were sloppy as they bombed it forward, winning the inside 50 count 66-39 but only converting into goals 15% of the time, with a sub-par goal scoring accuracy of 48%.
Dustin Martin (36 disposals, six rebounds and nine inside 50’s) and Alex Rance (20d., nine marks, 19 1%ers) were colossal but it was the extra class and dominance of ‘Dangerwood’ when it mattered most that pinched the game for the Cats. Dangerfield (30d., six clearances, 11 i.50’s) had nine touches in the last quarter and was unstoppable at the centre clearances, while Joel Selwood also had touches in addition to five tackles, four clearances and a goal.
Form
Geelong: W (+85), W (+3), L (-21), W (+65), L (-46).
Richmond: L (-67), W (+31), W (+19), W (+33), W (+29).
Team news
Geelong: IN- Dangerfield, Menzel, Stanley. OUT- Selwood (ankle), Buzza (omitted); Hawkins, Duncan (suspended).
Richmond: IN- Reiwoldt . OUT- Miles (omitted).
Stats that matter
- Richmond is the #1 ranked defensive side in the competition, conceding only 77 points per game. Alex Rance (4.1 rebounds, 10 1%ers), Bacher Houli (4.2 rb's., 23.5 d.) and Brandon Ellis (3.5 rb's., 22.d., 5 marks) the perfect two-way threats.
- Brownlow favourite Dustin Martin was huge the last time these two teams met with 36 disposals, three clearances, six rebound 50's and nine inside 50's. He has gone to another level this season, averaging 30 d., seven cl., 6.5 inside 50's and has kicked 26 goals.
- Geelong may be the #2 ranked attacking side in the league, but the absence of Tom Hawkins takes away 46 (ave. 2.6 p/g) goals. Dan Menzel (34) and Dangerfield (35) are both returning this round to help fill the void.
- This past month Richmond have held their opponents to an average of 63 points (including second placed GWS), while the Cats have allowed their opponents to score 85 points per game in the last four.
Odds
Head to Head: Geelong $2.30 (Sportsbet), Richmond $1.70 (Ladbrokes).
Line: Geelong $2.30 (Sportsbet), Richmond $1.70 (Ladbrokes).
Total Points Over/Under: +/- 156.5 $1.87 (William Hill).
Margin: Geelong 1-39, $2.80 (Crownbet); 40+ $12 (Bet365). Richmond 1-39, $2.30 (UBET); 40+ $6.25 (Luxbet).
Verdict
Richmond 1-39 WIN $2.15 (Unibet)
EXOTICS
First Goalscorer: Josh Caddy. Kicked the first goal last week and will be out to prove something to his former club. The number seven draft pick hasn't quite lived up to the hype yet, but he is just starting to hit some form.
30 possessions/3 goals: Martin/Dangerfield
