Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs, Friday, 7.50pm, Etihad Stadium
It is a bit preposterous to think that in the final round of the regular season in 2017, that neither the Hawks or the Bulldogs (bar a miracle) are going to make a contribution in the finals. While the Hawks were predicted to slide a bit, with their list ageing and playing style coming under scrutiny- it was certainly incomprehensible to imagine the extent of their side. On the flip-side, the Bulldogs were seen as a side that won the premiership last year despite not being one of the best couple of sides during the season; and it was a bit of an unknown as to where they sat in the scheme of things.
Well, here we are. A swansong for a couple of absolute legends of the game, who each had superlative careers in their own special ways, and no fairy tale- not even any finals! Before we have a look at the match, let's enjoy the best of the black and white facts of the four legends of these two great clubs who have decided to call it a day.
Luke Hodge: Pick #1, 2001. 305 games, 193 goals. 4 x Premiership player, 2 x Norm Smith, 3 x All-Australian, 2 x Peter Crimmins Medal (Club B&F). 128 Brownlow votes (up until end of 2016), Career disposal average of 22.5 (best: 44 disposals, Round 3 2015), AFL Fantasy career average of 90.
Josh Gibson: Rookie Selection #7, 2005. 225 games. Pick 3 x Premiership player, 1 x All-Australian, 2 x Peter Crimmins Medal (both in Premiership years).
Robert Murphy: Pick #13, 1999, 312 games, 182 goals. 2 x All-Australian, 51 Brownlow votes. In 2015 (when All-Australian captain) he had the highest disposal efficiency in the league (80%). In 2008 Preliminary Final he had a career best 16 marks.
Matthew Boyd: Rookie Selection #23, 2001. 293 games. 1 x Premiership player, 3 x All-Australian. 3 x Charles Sutton Medal (Club B&F). Career disposals average: 25, AFL Fantasy average: 93. 2016 saw him 2nd ranked in the league for meters gained.
An incredible list of achievements indeed, but they can't even begin to sum up just what they have contributed to both their clubs and the game; and it certainly doesn't sum up their consistency across their careers or the fact that all four (Hodge and Gibson in particular) were at their best when it mattered most.
Undoubtedly their will be a few tears at Etihad Stadium tonight, but this game is far more than the sum of the retiring players. The Hawks will want to go into the preseason with a sense of where their development sits, and the players who can take them forward. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, need to make a statement to their fans that 2017 was an erroneous blip on the radar, and that the 2016 flag was an indication of talent, tactics and work ethic- not luck.
Predicted weather: Roof-induced perfection.
Last time they met
Semi-final 2016, MCG. Hawthorn 12.12- 84 lost to Western Bulldogs 16.11-107
Multiple goalkickers: Hawthorn- Hodge, Shiels 2. Western Bulldogs- Picken, Stringer 3; C. Smith, Bontempelli 2.
The Dogs put on a contested footy display to earn a 2016 Prelim spot against a Hawks side that were continually, and significantly, on the wrong end of contested possession counts throughout the season. The match saw the Dogs win out 161-111 in contested ball; highlighted by the fact they dominated clearances throughout the game (+8), despite the Hawks notching an extra 17 hit-outs in the McEvoy v Roughead battle. The ‘Bont was clearly the most influential on the ground, with his eight clearances and two goals arguably far more important than his 27 touches; with honest assistance from the consistent accumulator Jack Macrae, who nabbed 39 disposals and eight marks. For the Hawks, it was only really Liam Shiels and Paul Puopolo who did their part to put some pressure on the inside ball carriers with 12 and 10 tackles respectively. Their teammates, however, could just never get first hands on the footy- allowing a free-flowing and exuberant Dogs side to easily rack up 70 extra disposals and repay the rejuvenated Picken and livewire Stringer for their endeavour.
Stat of the game: Nine Bulldogs players racked up more than nine contested possessions. How many Hawks did? None.
Form
Hawthorn: W (+52), W (+6), L (-29), W (+27), L (--7)
Western Bulldogs: W (+54), W (+30), W (+14), L (-48), L (-17)
There are plenty of eerie, yet explainable, similarities between the 2009 Hawks (circa their 2008 Flag) and the 2017 Bulldogs (circa their 2016 Flag). The only two premiership teams to miss finals the following year besides Port Adelaide (and let’s face it, what team would recover from a record breaking loss) since the ‘90’s. Alastair Clarkson has since admitted that his young team came back complacent after a bit too much partying, and it’s clear the Bulldogs have a few players in that boat (Liberatore, anyone?).
The ‘Bont has been very quiet of late, and spending a lot more time up forward instead of in the clearance clinches and delivering it on a platter to his forwards. Over the past five games he has kicked 6.11, and averaged 19 disposals and 5.5 clearances. Okay? Yes. Lofty and influential? No.
Hawthorn have kicked 100 points only five times this season, yet they only conceded 100 points to sides during the five hellish rounds in the opening month or so of the season.
It appears Hawthorn still have little interest in reducing the contested possession deficit they are usually subject to. Despite their relatively lowly ladder position, they are 2nd in the league for total uncontested possessions but the third worst side in the contested stakes. They do always say contested footy wins finals…..if the boot fits?
Odds
Head to Head: Hawthorn $2 (Everywhere), Western Bulldogs $1.90 (Luxbet).
First Goalscorer: JARRYD ROUGHEAD $10 (Sportsbet). Western Bulldogs struggle early in the game, conceding easy clearances; scoring the first goal on only five occasions. You get the feeling the big fella will relish this game against the undersized Doggies defence.
Smaller plays: ISAAC SMITH $30 (B365), MARCUS BONTEMPELLI $17 (William Hill).
Luke Hodge- AFL Fantasy Total Points OVER: 92.5 $1.87 (Ladbrokes).
